Bet on Global Markets to Surge Soon as Iran Supreme Leader is Replaced by Cleric Friendlier to West
Submitted by EnergyTechStocks.com
Thirty years ago I was on the streets of Tehran as a reporter for The Wall Street Journal watching college students lead a people’s revolt against the Shah of Iran’s ruthless dictatorship, only to have the freedom many of them died for immediately snatched away by the equally ruthless dictatorship of Ayatollah Khomeini.
Just as the Iranian people rose up against a secular dictatorship, today they are rising up against the religious dictatorship that replaced it. Perhaps in no other nation on earth does the unfulfilled yearning for freedom, the right to think for oneself, so define a people. If Khomeini were still in charge, trust me, this revolt would already be over. The cemetery in south Tehran would be overflowing with mourners of the victims of the street violence.
But today’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has shown that he doesn’t have the Stalin-esque skills needed to maintain control. He allowed the street marches to take on a life of their own. He took seriously questions about the election’s legitimacy. He apparently allowed the uniformed military to act on its impulse to sit things out. While Khamenei has finally started to crack down, the people have been emboldened. They know that, just like 30 years ago, they have the power to force change at the top.
Not just the millions in the streets but the many millions more staying at home have demonstrated that they want change, the latter by refusing to join in massive counter protests that Khameini and Ahmadinejad could have used at the outset to justify a brutal reprisal against the dissenters. While Facebook and Twitter have been important weapons in the people’s hands, just as important has been the far greater presence of women and children in the marches than 30 years ago.
Don’t think of Iran’s Council of Guardians as some U.S.-style Presidential Cabinet loyal to the Supreme Leader. Think of the council as a bunch of power-hungry clerics who would like nothing better than to succeed Khameini and hold a new election that puts his own man in power. (Bye, bye Mousavi as well as Ahmadinejad.)
Whoever replaces Khameini in the coming weeks won’t be accepting any invitations to a state dinner at the White House. But in order to win over the people, he will not only have to give the people more freedom. He also will have to change how Iran interacts with the world. The way will be open to an agreement that guarantees Iran the right to nuclear energy in exchange for international safeguards against the development of nuclear weapons.
The moment the new Supreme Leader as much as hints at better relations with the West, look for global stock markets to surge on the hope of a more peaceful world.
